Tom Tiffany speaks at Mosinee Brewing Company. MWC photo by Mike Leischner
WAUSAU, WI (WSAU) – The first poll of the 2026 Wisconsin general election cycle is out, and it shows that the race between Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany may be a toss-up come election day.
According to the newly released Badger Battleground poll on Sunday, Crowley leads Tom Tiffany 48% to 44% with 500 likely voters responding.
One of the key focal points of the poll found that Crowley led Tiffany 42% to 30% among respondents who identified as independents, which will be a key demographic come November. College graduate respondents also backed Crowley over Tiffany by over 20 percentage points, while those without a degree supported Tiffany by 14 points.
The Badger Battleground poll is in line with a poll the Institute for Reforming Government conducted among 800 registered voters in late July, which found Crowley ahead of Tiffany by an estimated 3 percentage points.
When looking at the latest Polymarket data, Republicans had a 58% chance of flipping the governor’s seat this fall when the Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong was considered the favorite to win the Democratic nomination. However, now their data shows that Democrats have a 78% chance of retaining the seat, while pollster Nate Silver released his latest gubernatorial ratings last week, listing Wisconsin as a toss-up.
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