BEIJING, Jan 19 (Reuters) – China’s economy grew 4.5% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, official data showed on Monday, a touch above analysts’ expectations and bang in line with the government’s annual growth target.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) would expand 4.4% from a year earlier, slowing from the third-quarter’s 4.8% pace as consumption and investment dragged. Last quarter’s growth was the slowest in three years.
KEY POINTS
* 2025 GDP +5.0% (f’cast +4.9%, government target of around +5%)
* Q4 GDP +4.5% y/y (f’cast +4.4%, Q3 +4.8%)
* Q4 GDP +1.2% q/q (f’cast +1.0%, Q3 +1.1%)
* Dec industrial output +5.2% y/y (f’cast +5.0%, Nov +4.8%)
* Dec retail sales +0.9% y/y (f’cast +1.2%, Nov +1.3%)
* 2025 fixed asset investment -3.8% (f’cast -3.0%, Jan-Nov -3.3%)
* 2025 property investment -17.2% (Jan-Nov -15.9%)
* China’s population falls for fourth straight year
COMMENTARY:
CHARU CHANANA, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SAXO, SINGAPORE:
“China hit 5% growth, but it wasn’t broad-based. Exports and manufacturing did the heavy lifting, while property and parts of domestic demand stayed soft — so the ‘headline win’ hides uneven momentum. The Q4 slowdown is the tell… suggesting China enters 2026 with fading momentum, not a fresh upswing.
“2026 is shaping up as a ‘managed slowdown.’ Unless policy pivots more decisively towards households and consumption, growth is likely in the low-4s to mid-4s — more stability management than a clean return to a 5%+ path.”
BACKGROUND
* China’s economy showed remarkable resilience in 2025, helped by smaller-than-expected U.S. tariff hikes and exporters’ push to diversify away from the United States.
* But its reliance on external demand underlined vulnerabilities in the world’s second-largest economy. Policymakers have their work cut out as a prolonged property slump and persistent deflationary pressures heighten calls to address deep structural imbalances.
* China logged a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, led by exports to non-U.S. markets. However, demand at home weakened since late last year as confidence remained low amid the protracted property crisis.
* Economic growth is likely to slow to 4.5% in 2026 and maintain the same pace in 2027, a Reuters poll shows, underscoring the stiff challenge facing Chinese policymakers as U.S. President Donald Trump shakes up the global economic order.
* The 2026 economic outlook is clouded by rising global trade protectionism and by Trump’s unpredictable trade and broader economic policies.
* A slowdown in economic growth is likely to pile pressure on Chinese authorities for more stimulus as they look to address structural vulnerabilities to underpin the country’s longer-term health.
(Reporting by Reuters Asia bureaus; Compiled and edited by Subhranshu Sahu)
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