(Reuters) -U.S. retailers brace for a subdued holiday shopping season this year as the economic fallout from President Donald Trump’s erratic trade policies leaves shoppers more cautious about buying extravagant gifts.
The holiday selling season spans over three months from November to the end of January, including key shopping days such as Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas, which account for a chunk of retailers’ annual sales.
In recent weeks, several companies have issued mixed earnings forecasts heading into the season. While Walmart and Macy’s raised their outlook, toymaker Mattel cut its forecast. Target maintained its annual expectations.
Here are some prominent holiday shopping forecasts and surveys:
SOURCE KEY FORECASTS NUMBERS
PwC PricewaterhouseCoop American shoppers
ers projected the are expected to
steepest spend about $1,552
year-over-year drop per person on
in U.S. holiday average, down 5.3%
spending since the from last year.
pandemic, primarily
fueled by Gen Z
shoppers pulling
back amid economic
uncertainty.
Deloitte U.S. holiday sales Retail sales during
are expected to the November
grow at their 2025-January 2026
slowest pace since period are expected
the pandemic. to rise between
2.9% and 3.4%,
compared with a
4.2% increase last
year, marking the
slowest growth
since the 2018-2019
season.
E-commerce sales
are projected to
increase between 7%
and 9% during the
season,
compared with last
year’s 8% growth.
In-store sales are
projected to rise
between 2% and
2.2%, compared to a
3.4% growth in
2024.
Salesforce The software Online spending is
company projects a expected to rise
slower growth in 2.1% to $288
online spending billion, lower than
between November 1 a 4% increase in
and December 31. the same period
last year.
Mastercard The Mastercard Retail sales are
Economics Institute expected to rise
expects U.S. 3.6% between
holiday sales November 1 and
growth to moderate December 24 this
this year. Still, year, compared to a
it will be driven 4.1% growth in the
by promotions, as same period last
consumers seek the year.
best value for Online sales are
their money amid expected to jump
broader 7.9% this holiday
macroeconomic season, compared to
uncertainty. an 8.6% rise last
year.
In-store sales are
projected to grow
2.3%. It rose 2.8%
in the 2024 holiday
season.
Adobe U.S. holiday online U.S. online sales
Analytics sales to grow at a to rise 5.3% to
slower pace this $253.4 billion
year, Adobe between November 1
Analytics projects, and December 31,
as macroeconomic compared with an
uncertainty 8.7% rise last
continues to year.
pressure consumer Cyber Monday sales
spending. is expected to rise
6.3% to $14.2
billion.
Consumer spending
between October 7
and October 8 is
expected to be $9
billion, a 6.2%
increase compared
with last year, as
the data firm
expects shoppers to
kick off some of
their early holiday
purchases during
Amazon’s October
Big Deal Days.
(Reporting by Neil J Kanatt in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo)
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