(Reuters) -U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in January, likely restrained by wildfires in California and cold weather across much of the country, but a 4.0% unemployment rate probably gives the Federal Reserve cover to hold off cutting interest rates at least until June.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 307,000 in December, the Labor Department said on Friday. The moderation in job gains was also payback after December’s robust performance. Economists had expected the establishment survey to show 170,000 jobs added.
MARKET REACTION:
STOCKS: S&P 500 E-minis steadied and off 0.03% pointing to a flat open on Wall Street
BONDS: The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notesjumped to 4.473%, the two-year note yield jumped to 4.254%FOREX: The dollar index ticked up to 0.2% firmer and the euro extended a bit to a 0.2% loss%
COMMENTS:
ADAM SARHAN, CHIEF EXECUTIVE, 50 PARK INVESTMENTS, NEW YORK
“Futures are pretty much where they were before the news came out. The jobs report wasn’t too hot or too cold… this allows the market to breathe a sigh of relief. At this stage in the time, no news is good news for the market. For me, the market is extremely resilient, with all of the news we’ve had – political, economic and earnings.”
WASIF LATIF, PRESIDENT AND CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, SARMAYA PARTNERS, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY
“It looks like a bit of a mixed bag in terms of the report, with the non-farm payroll number lower than what was expected but you’ve got December revised up – which is good. And then on the positive side you have the unemployment rate going down and the average hourly earnings moving up. So it’s mixed and I think that’s what the markets are doing. Normally when you get a one-sided report you see an immediate reaction in the market. But now I think the market is still trying to digest it and see what it really means and which way it’s going to go. I saw a little dipping in equity futures and the bond market yields nudged. But it doesn’t seem like a huge move. It’s not necessarily like a middle-of-the-road Goldilocks-type of report but the fact that you have different measures going in different directions, that seems to be keeping everything in check in terms of market reaction so far.”
PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK
“So basically, you know you had non-farms coming in less than than we expected, but there was a revision (to December’s payrolls) that sort of like negates the 143,000.”
“But the heating up of hourly wages, especially on the month of on a year-to-year basis, that’s no good.”
“Basically, it’s a report that raises inflation and inflation fears. It means the Fed will probably continue with its wait-and-see attitude, and that wait-and-see might actually have to be longer than perhaps what the market is expecting.”
“I would say it’s not going to be detrimental to stocks in a big way, but you can see the dollar strengthening. The 10-year (Treasury yield) is moving higher.”
“And that just means that the Fed is going to stay on hold for a while.”
LINDSAY ROSNER, HEAD OF MULTI SECTOR FIXED INCOME INVESTING, GOLDMAN SACHS ASSET MANAGEMENT (emailed comments)
“Mixed items here. Weak headline NFP with a miss to the downside, however a positive prior revision and an unemployment rate that ticked down to 4%. This month’s release was impacted by one-off factors including wildfires in California and a cold snap in other parts of the country … We think the Fed is likely to be cautious about reading too much into today’s report.”
BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN
“The revisions always make it messy to tease out what is signal and what is noise. The payroll gain wasn’t great, but it was decent especially considering the jump in payrolls in November and December. Aggregate weekly hours fell for the month, but that could be due to a number of factors including the severe cold weather across much of the country and the wildfires in LA. Education and health care continue to drive most of the gains. The increase in federal employment will probably shift to a decline for a while. A good base case is to think that the Fed isn’t going to prioritize inflation over employment as they approach their March meeting.”
(Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News team)
Comments